Neighborhood Publication: New prevalence estimates, journal chief steps down | Spectrum
Illustration by Laurène Boglio
Hello and welcome to the Spectrum community newsletter.
Autism researchers pondered autism prevalence questions on Twitter this week after two new estimates came out.
Jack Underwood, a clinical research fellow at the University of Cardiff in Wales, posted a thread on new work that found an eight-fold increase in autism diagnoses in Welsh women from 2001 to 2016.
I’m very excited to announce that this has now been published (online first) in @journalautism, free and freely accessible. Full thread ????, the key findings are a dramatic increase in recorded autism diagnoses from 2001 to 2016, including an 8-fold increase in women. https://t.co/hZrBlfaCM1 https://t.co/OhgFkrt5qn
– Jack Underwood (@JFGUnderwood) November 30, 2021
In a longer thread written when the paper was adopted, Underwood summed up the findings: The team reviewed the medical records of more than 3.6 million people across Wales and anonymously identified 0.51 percent with a diagnosis of autism. They found that the annual incidence had increased steadily over the 15 years of the data they reviewed.
The jump reflects better public awareness of the condition, he writes, but since estimates are lower than previous ones based on population samples or clinical cohorts, diagnoses in medical records are clearly still overlooked.
On Thursday, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also released new prevalence figures from their autism and developmental disorder monitoring network. In 8-year-olds at 11 locations, the prevalence of autism was 1 in 44 children in 2018, compared to 1 in 54 in 2016.
David Mandell, a professor of psychiatry at the University of Pennsylvania, tweeted about the new numbers – and why they should be treated with “a healthy dose of skepticism.” For one thing, he writes, the numbers are based solely on educational and health records, not clinical evaluations.
As every 2 years, the CDC released its surveillance report on autism in 8 year olds and reports that the prevalence is now 1 in 44. Let’s talk about why we should treat these numbers with a healthy dose of skepticism. https://t.co/Mjtmq77Ytq 1/8
– David Mandell (@DSMandell) December 2, 2021
Jonathan Sebat, a professor of psychiatry at the University of California, San Diego, retweeted this view, commenting on how “CDC estimates of autism” prevalence “reflect services and diagnostic procedures, but not large estimates of the actual prevalence of the disorder are. ”
The CDC estimates of the “prevalence” of autism reflect services and diagnostic practices, but are not large estimates of the true prevalence of the disorder https://t.co/px7xPix7Qi
– Jonathan Sebat (@sebatlab) December 2, 2021
In other Mandell news, he stepped down from his role as editor-in-chief of Autism, an announcement that sparked a spate of sad tweets.
It is one of the great privileges of my professional life to have published this magazine for 10 years and to work with its exceptional editorial team. I am very curious to see where the next editor-in-chief will lead. https://t.co/bZGHxPNMbt
– David Mandell (@DSMandell) November 28, 2021
In response to Brittany Rudd, a professor of psychology at the University of Illinois at Chicago, he came up with an enviable list of activities to fill in the newly discovered gaps in his calendar: “Bake. Woodworking. Gardening. Answer the confusing reviews of my last grant application. Search my inbox. “
That’s it for this week’s community newsletter! If you have suggestions for interesting social contributions in the field of autism research, email chelsey@spectrumnews.org.
Cite this article: https://doi.org/10.53053/JGJP7249
